Demographics & Migration
The slow system underneath every other subject: how many people there are, how old they are, and where they move. The long run of human numbers and the scares that forecast it wrongly; the fall in fertility and what governments have tried; aging and the pension arithmetic, with Japan as the frontier; the young world of Africa, India, and the Middle East; migration and the political turn of 2025–26; the displaced; the emptying countryside; the economics; and demography's weight in the balance of power. Brought to October: Japan's record-low 671,000 births in 2025 and South Korea's second year of rises; the UN's estimate of world fertility at 2.23 against a September study's 2.19; America's enforcement campaign and its disputed net migration; Britain's net migration down from 944,000 to 171,000; 117.8 million people displaced by force at the end of 2025; and the EU's temporary protection for Ukrainians extended to March 2028. Where the field argues, over why fertility fell, whether policy can raise it, how much immigration a rich country should admit, whether a shrinking population must grow slowly, and whether demography is destiny, each side makes its case before the evidence. Four worked examples, from what a baby bonus buys to the growth arithmetic of a shrinking workforce.